Answered with numbers you can check — including ours.
Both teams to score - BTTS - asks only whether each side scores at least once, so it ignores the result entirely. That makes it a cleaner target for a goals-based model than the match result, because a Poisson model produces the two scoring distributions directly and BTTS falls straight out of them.
The inputs that matter most are each team's rate of scoring and of conceding, how often each has failed to score at all in recent matches, and the league's baseline goal rate. Leagues differ enormously here, and applying one set of expectations across all of them is the most common error.
BTTS prices usually sit in a narrow band around evens, which means small edges and a high break-even strike rate. Judge any BTTS record on ROI over a decent sample, never on strike rate alone.
MalluSports publishes BTTS alongside its other markets in the free record at mallusports.pro/data/, with the per-market breakdown shown honestly - including markets running at negative ROI. Over 2.5 Goals is currently the model's worst published market at -29.2% ROI over 15 settled picks.
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