How goalscorer prices are built, why penalty duty is worth more than form, and the mistake that costs people most.
An anytime goalscorer bet pays if your player scores at any point. Prices are built from expected minutes, shot volume, position, penalty duty and the strength of the opposing defence, roughly in that order of importance.
The most underpriced factor is penalty duty. A designated taker adds a meaningful chunk of scoring probability across a season for free, and it is frequently not reflected fully in the price of a midfielder or winger who happens to take them. The most overpriced factor is recent form, which the public chases relentlessly and which predicts very little at player level.
The mistake that costs most is ignoring rotation. A player priced at 2.50 who starts on the bench is worth nothing, and confirmed line-ups arrive an hour before kickoff. Betting this market before team news is not a strategy, it is a guess with a fee attached.
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