Staking Plans Compared: Flat, Percentage, Kelly and Martingale

Flat staking risks the same amount every time. It is boring, it is nearly impossible to get wrong, and it is what most profitable bettors actually use. Percentage staking risks a fixed share of the current bankroll, so stakes shrink automatically in a downswing and grow in an upswing.

Kelly sizes each bet by your edge: the bigger the gap between your probability and the price, the more you risk. It maximises long-run growth mathematically, and it is brutally sensitive to overestimating your own edge. Most people who use it should use a quarter of it.

Martingale doubles after every loss to recover. It works beautifully until the run that does not end, at which point it takes everything. Eight consecutive losses starting at one unit needs a 256-unit bet to recover, and the table limit or your balance arrives first. It is not a staking plan, it is a delayed bankruptcy.

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