Your probability against their price. Edge and EV, instantly.
A bet has value when your probability is higher than the probability the price implies. If you think something happens 55% of the time and the book prices it at 2.10 — an implied 47.6% — you have a 7.4 point edge, and the expected value is positive. Bet it repeatedly and you profit; bet it once and anything can happen.
The hard part is not the arithmetic, it is the probability. Everyone can compute EV. Almost nobody can estimate probability better than a bookmaker who prices thousands of markets a day. That is the entire reason for using a model rather than an opinion.
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MalluSports is a free tips and analysis service only. We accept no bets and hold no funds. Every figure shown is virtual and illustrative. 18+.