Kelly Criterion, Odds Converter, Accumulator & Hedging — the tools professional bettors use, free for every global punter.
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula developed by John Kelly Jr. at Bell Labs in 1956. It calculates the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet on any selection, given the odds and your edge over the bookmaker.
Most professional bettors use Half Kelly (50% of the Kelly recommendation) to reduce variance while still growing their bankroll optimally. MalluSports uses Full Kelly calculations internally but delivers Half Kelly stakes in the app.
Linebet, 1xBet, Bet365, and MegaPari all default to decimal odds worldwide. Decimal odds of 2.00 mean you double your money (including your stake) on a win. Anything above 2.00 is an "odds-against" bet (you win more than you staked). Anything between 1.01 and 2.00 is "odds-on" (the bookmaker thinks this is likely to happen).
Accumulators are high-risk, high-reward. Because each leg must win, the probability multiplies — a 4-leg acca with each leg at 60% win probability has only a 12.96% chance of landing. Bookmakers love accumulators because the house edge multiplies with each leg added.
MalluSports recommends: if you bet accumulators, limit to 3 selections, use only picks with positive expected value, and keep your stake small (1-2% of bankroll).
Hedging means placing a bet on the opposite outcome to your original bet, to lock in a profit or reduce a potential loss. It makes sense when your original bet has moved strongly in your favour (the opposing odds have dropped) and you want to guarantee a return.
Example: You backed a team at 3.50 to win the league. Halfway through the season, the opposing odds (for them NOT winning) are now 1.40. A hedge bet on the opposite outcome can lock in profit regardless of the final result.
Expected Value (EV) tells you the average profit or loss per bet over the long run. A positive EV means you will profit on average if you make this bet repeatedly. A negative EV means the bookmaker has more edge than you.
MalluSports uses Poisson distribution to estimate true win probability for every match, then only publishes picks where our probability implies a positive EV against the available odds.