Where models beat people, where people beat models, and why the honest answer is that you want both.
Models are better at things humans are reliably bad at: processing every fixture consistently, remembering results without emotional weighting, applying the same standard on a Tuesday as on a Saturday, and never falling in love with a team.
Humans are better at the things models cannot see. A squad in visible disarray, a manager about to be sacked, a dead rubber where one side has nothing left to play for, a fixture where the team news carries meaning the numbers do not capture. Models read history; people read context.
The honest conclusion is that neither replaces the other. Our approach is a model that filters every fixture and publishes only where the numbers disagree with the market, and a human check on the situations where the numbers are known to be blind. Anyone claiming a model needs no human input is selling something.
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