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How Many Bets Before You Know If a Tipster Is Any Good?

Why fifty winning picks proves almost nothing, the sample sizes that actually mean something, and how to read a tipster's record honestly.

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A tipster showing 30 wins from 50 at even money looks excellent. Run the numbers and a completely random selector reaches that record by chance often enough that it proves very little. Fifty bets is a story, not evidence.

Meaningful confidence needs hundreds of bets, and the higher the odds, the more you need. At odds around 2.00 you want several hundred before drawing conclusions. At odds of 5.00 or more, where wins are rare and large, you need far more still, because a single result moves the whole record.

This is why the shape of a record matters as much as the headline. Ask how many bets, at what average odds, over what period, and whether the losers are shown. A record that only exists as a percentage in a marketing graphic is not a record.

Key points

Frequently asked

How many bets is a reliable sample?
Several hundred at short odds, considerably more at long odds. Anyone quoting a strike rate from under a hundred bets is quoting noise.
Why does average odds change what I need?
Because outcomes at long odds are rarer and larger, so each one swings the record further. High-odds strategies take much longer to prove.
What should I look for in a published record?
Every settled bet, the price taken, the date, and the result. If any of those are missing, the record cannot be checked, and a record that cannot be checked is marketing.

Put it to use

Value calculator →Odds converter →Our open record →Free daily tips →

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