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Team Total Goals: Betting One Side's Attack in Isolation

Why splitting over/under by team is often sharper than the match total, and how to use it when two sides are mismatched.

The match total lumps two attacks and two defences into one number. Team totals let you bet only the half you have an opinion on, which is usually a much cleaner expression of what you actually believe.

It is at its best in mismatches. If a strong home side is facing a poor defence but the away team might also score, backing the home side over 1.5 team goals is often better than the match over 2.5, because you are not dependent on the away attack doing anything at all. You have removed a variable you had no view on.

It is also useful in reverse. Backing a weak away side under 0.5 team goals is a cleaner defensive bet than the correlated clean sheet, and the price sometimes differs between the two despite being effectively identical events. Comparing them takes ten seconds and occasionally pays.

Key points

Bet only the attack or defence you have a read on
Removes dependence on the other team's output
Compare it against the equivalent clean sheet price
Best used in clear mismatches, not in even games

Frequently asked

Is team total better than match total?

It is more precise. If your view is about one team specifically, the team total expresses it without importing risk from the other side.

Do own goals count towards team totals?

Yes, an own goal counts for the team that benefits under standard rules. Check your bookmaker if it matters to the bet.

What is the most common team total line?

Over/under 1.5 for the favourite and over/under 0.5 or 1.5 for the underdog.

Put it to use

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Team Total Goals: Betting One Side's Attack in Isolation

Key points

Frequently asked

Put it to use

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