TRUST

Reading a Tipster's Record: The Four Numbers That Matter

Bet count, average odds, time period and staking method. Without all four, a strike rate means nothing.

A strike rate on its own is meaningless. Sixty percent sounds impressive until you learn the average odds were 1.40, at which point it is a losing strategy. Every strike rate needs its average price attached to mean anything at all.

Four numbers together make a record readable: how many bets, at what average odds, over what period, using what staking method. Remove any one and the picture can be made to look far better than it is, which is precisely why marketing tends to quote one number.

The staking method matters more than people expect. Variable stakes let a single large winner carry an otherwise losing record, so a yield calculated across inconsistent stakes tells you about one bet rather than about the method. Our own published figure uses flat one-unit stakes across every settled pick for exactly this reason.

Key points

Frequently asked

What strike rate is good?
It depends entirely on the odds. Sixty percent at 1.40 loses money; forty percent at 3.00 makes it.
Why does the staking method matter?
Because variable stakes allow one large winner to carry an otherwise unprofitable set of selections.
How many bets before a record means something?
Several hundred at short odds, and considerably more as average odds rise.

Put it to use

Our full published record →About & track record →Compared with other sites →Free tips, no signup →

Read next

MalluSports publishes free predictions and analysis only. We accept no bets, hold no funds, and hold no gambling licence. Every monetary figure shown across this site is virtual and illustrative. Betting carries real risk. 18+ · begambleaware.org