The Test Match Draw: Cricket's Most Underrated Outcome

Test cricket has three outcomes and most bettors think about two. The draw attracts a small share of the money relative to how often it occurs, which is the same behavioural bias that makes the football draw interesting.

The conditions that produce draws are identifiable: flat surfaces that do not deteriorate, weather forecasts with significant rain, evenly matched sides, and the fifth day arriving with the match still in the balance. Rain in particular is a strong predictor that is available days in advance.

The market prices weather, but often not fully, and rarely as early as the forecast is available. Checking a five-day forecast against draw prices before a Test begins is one of the more straightforward pieces of work available in cricket betting.

Key points

The draw is underbacked relative to how often it happens
Flat, non-deteriorating surfaces produce draws
Rain forecasts are available days ahead and priced late
Evenly matched sides raise draw probability substantially

Frequently asked

How often do Test matches end in draws?

It varies considerably by era, venue and conditions, but it remains a substantial minority of matches and far more than the betting volume suggests.

What is the strongest predictor of a draw?

Weather. Significant forecast rain removes playing time, and a Test needs time for a result.

Is the draw good value?

Frequently, particularly early in the week before the market fully absorbs the weather forecast.

Put it to use

The Test Match Draw: Cricket's Most Underrated Outcome

Key points

Frequently asked

Put it to use

Read next